We spend a lot of time talking about AI's technical capabilities: what it can do now, what it might do tomorrow, what it will never do.
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We spend a lot of time talking about AI's technical capabilities: what it can do now, what it might do tomorrow, what it will never do. But AI is only secondarily a tech phenomenon; it is primarily a *financial* phenomenon, hundreds of billions of dollars in investment capital in search of a return.
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We spend a lot of time talking about AI's technical capabilities: what it can do now, what it might do tomorrow, what it will never do. But AI is only secondarily a tech phenomenon; it is primarily a *financial* phenomenon, hundreds of billions of dollars in investment capital in search of a return.
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If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this thread to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:
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The return on that capital only comes from one place: workers' wages. AI - as a financial phenomenon - represents that AI will a) replace, and/or; b) frighten workers to the point where more of the revenues generated by firms that buy AI tools will be returned to executives and shareholders, at the expense of their workforce.
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The return on that capital only comes from one place: workers' wages. AI - as a financial phenomenon - represents that AI will a) replace, and/or; b) frighten workers to the point where more of the revenues generated by firms that buy AI tools will be returned to executives and shareholders, at the expense of their workforce.
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This is why AI bosses are so eager to cite statistics - conjured out of thin air, without any backing - about how AI is about to replace *the majority* of workers:
Business executives sound alarm over looming workforce displacement due to AI — Harvard Gazette
Expert on future of work says it’s a little early for dire predictions, but there are signs significant change may be coming
Harvard Gazette (news.harvard.edu)
And it's why tech companies that are peddling AI tools boast so brazenly about how many programmers' work can be replaced by AI:
How Amazon Q automates software development with GenAI | Andy Jassy posted on the topic | LinkedIn
One of the most tedious (but critical tasks) for software development teams is updating foundational software. It’s not new feature work, and it doesn’t feel like you’re moving the experience forward. As a result, this work is either dreaded or put off for more exciting work—or both. Amazon Q, our GenAI assistant for software development, is trying to bring some light to this heaviness. We have a new code transformation capability, and here’s what we found when we integrated it into our internal systems and applied it to our needed Java upgrades: - The average time to upgrade an application to Java 17 plummeted from what’s typically 50 developer-days to just a few hours. We estimate this has saved us the equivalent of 4,500 developer-years of work (yes, that number is crazy but, real). - In under six months, we've been able to upgrade more than 50% of our production Java systems to modernized Java versions at a fraction of the usual time and effort. And, our developers shipped 79% of the auto-generated code reviews without any additional changes. - The benefits go beyond how much effort we’ve saved developers. The upgrades have enhanced security and reduced infrastructure costs, providing an estimated $260M in annualized efficiency gains. This is a great example of how large-scale enterprises can gain significant efficiencies in foundational software hygiene work by leveraging Amazon Q. It’s been a game changer for us, and not only do our Amazon teams plan to use this transformation capability more, but our Q team plans to add more transformations for developers to leverage. | 342 comments on LinkedIn
(www.linkedin.com)
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This is why AI bosses are so eager to cite statistics - conjured out of thin air, without any backing - about how AI is about to replace *the majority* of workers:
Business executives sound alarm over looming workforce displacement due to AI — Harvard Gazette
Expert on future of work says it’s a little early for dire predictions, but there are signs significant change may be coming
Harvard Gazette (news.harvard.edu)
And it's why tech companies that are peddling AI tools boast so brazenly about how many programmers' work can be replaced by AI:
How Amazon Q automates software development with GenAI | Andy Jassy posted on the topic | LinkedIn
One of the most tedious (but critical tasks) for software development teams is updating foundational software. It’s not new feature work, and it doesn’t feel like you’re moving the experience forward. As a result, this work is either dreaded or put off for more exciting work—or both. Amazon Q, our GenAI assistant for software development, is trying to bring some light to this heaviness. We have a new code transformation capability, and here’s what we found when we integrated it into our internal systems and applied it to our needed Java upgrades: - The average time to upgrade an application to Java 17 plummeted from what’s typically 50 developer-days to just a few hours. We estimate this has saved us the equivalent of 4,500 developer-years of work (yes, that number is crazy but, real). - In under six months, we've been able to upgrade more than 50% of our production Java systems to modernized Java versions at a fraction of the usual time and effort. And, our developers shipped 79% of the auto-generated code reviews without any additional changes. - The benefits go beyond how much effort we’ve saved developers. The upgrades have enhanced security and reduced infrastructure costs, providing an estimated $260M in annualized efficiency gains. This is a great example of how large-scale enterprises can gain significant efficiencies in foundational software hygiene work by leveraging Amazon Q. It’s been a game changer for us, and not only do our Amazon teams plan to use this transformation capability more, but our Q team plans to add more transformations for developers to leverage. | 342 comments on LinkedIn
(www.linkedin.com)
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After all, tech workers were - until recently - the princes of labor. Despite infinitesimal union density in the tech sector, tech workers were in such high demand that they could tell their bosses to go fuck themselves - and keep their jobs. Those bosses knew that a worker who quit during the morning scrum could have a better job with a rival firm before evening cocktails.
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After all, tech workers were - until recently - the princes of labor. Despite infinitesimal union density in the tech sector, tech workers were in such high demand that they could tell their bosses to go fuck themselves - and keep their jobs. Those bosses knew that a worker who quit during the morning scrum could have a better job with a rival firm before evening cocktails.
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While tech bosses cultivated a chuminess with these workers, treating them as peers (temporarily embarrassed founders, not employees) and sitting down for "town halls," they clearly *hated* this and wanted nothing more than to put these arrogant pismires in their place.
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While tech bosses cultivated a chuminess with these workers, treating them as peers (temporarily embarrassed founders, not employees) and sitting down for "town halls," they clearly *hated* this and wanted nothing more than to put these arrogant pismires in their place.
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The *instant* tech labor's supply caught up with demand, these bosses mass-fired their precious tech workers, canceled town halls ("Not a good use of my time" -M. Zuckerberg), and told workers that the "sweet spot" was a 60-hour work-week:
Facebook announced a 5% across-the-board layoff and doubled its executives' bonuses - *on the same day*. They fired thousands of workers and then hired a single AI researcher for $200m:
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The *instant* tech labor's supply caught up with demand, these bosses mass-fired their precious tech workers, canceled town halls ("Not a good use of my time" -M. Zuckerberg), and told workers that the "sweet spot" was a 60-hour work-week:
Facebook announced a 5% across-the-board layoff and doubled its executives' bonuses - *on the same day*. They fired thousands of workers and then hired a single AI researcher for $200m:
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Whatever else all this is, it's a *performance*. It's a way of demonstrating the efficacy of the product they're hoping *your* boss will buy and replace you with: *Remember when techies were prized beyond all measure, pampered and flattered?*
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Whatever else all this is, it's a *performance*. It's a way of demonstrating the efficacy of the product they're hoping *your* boss will buy and replace you with: *Remember when techies were prized beyond all measure, pampered and flattered?*
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*AI is SO GOOD at replacing workers that we are dragging these arrogant little shits out by their hoodies and firing them over Interstate 280 with a special, AI-powered trebuchet. Imagine how many of the ungrateful useless eaters who clog up your payroll *you* will be able to vaporize when you buy our product!*
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*AI is SO GOOD at replacing workers that we are dragging these arrogant little shits out by their hoodies and firing them over Interstate 280 with a special, AI-powered trebuchet. Imagine how many of the ungrateful useless eaters who clog up your payroll *you* will be able to vaporize when you buy our product!*
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Which is why you should always dig closely into announcements about AI-driven tech layoffs. It's true that tech job listings are down 36% since ChatGPT's debut - but that's pretty much true of *all* job listings:
Is AI causing tech worker layoffs? That's what CEOs suggest, but the reality is complicated
A new report from Indeed reveals that tech job postings in July were down 36% from early 2020 levels. While AI is a factor, it's not the sole reason for the decline.
AP News (apnews.com)
And the major decline in tech hiring isn't the result of hiring far fewer programmers - the tech companies have mostly cut back on hiring marketers, administrative assistants, and HR staff.
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