Our president just fired the Labor Secretary because the most recent jobs numbers didn't match his feelings about how good the economy is.
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@futurebird @rbreich What are the odds our media will figure out that they can get fairly accurate stats by contacting each state...and adding?
The finance guys I know use those numbers in their models and they really need them to be based on reality or the models won't work.
Fake numbers will break SO MANY things.
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Our president just fired head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because the most recent jobs numbers didn't match his feelings about how good the economy is. He did not explain WHY he thought the report was incorrect. Naturally many people now say we won't be able to trust future reports.
To me, faking such numbers seems difficult.
Dr. Reich, @rbreich as a former Secretary of Labor and guy who knows about The Economy can you tells us what might be tell-tale signs of a "Fake Jobs Report" ?
A note:
The Head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics got fired by Trump for not lying for him.
The Labor Secretary is apparently okay with that.
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A note:
The Head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics got fired by Trump for not lying for him.
The Labor Secretary is apparently okay with that.
But how could you lie about something that's been done the same way for decades? I mean, I guess I can think of ways but come on.
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A note:
The Head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics got fired by Trump for not lying for him.
The Labor Secretary is apparently okay with that.
I keep thinking about that thing where Trump would change how much he thought his business was worth based on "his feelings at the time" and I assume he thinks numbers aren't connected to anything and you can just say any number you want. I mean when he wants a number to be large each time he says it, it grows exponentially*.
*I have the sudden urge to do a regression on "trump numbers" and find out exactly how they tend to grow and warp over time...
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Our president just fired head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because the most recent jobs numbers didn't match his feelings about how good the economy is. He did not explain WHY he thought the report was incorrect. Naturally many people now say we won't be able to trust future reports.
To me, faking such numbers seems difficult.
Dr. Reich, @rbreich as a former Secretary of Labor and guy who knows about The Economy can you tells us what might be tell-tale signs of a "Fake Jobs Report" ?
@futurebird fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics which is supposed to be non partisan. The labor secretary serves at the pleasure of the president. She is a one-term congressional rep from the Portland suburbs who lost her reelection bid.
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@futurebird fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics which is supposed to be non partisan. The labor secretary serves at the pleasure of the president. She is a one-term congressional rep from the Portland suburbs who lost her reelection bid.
ooh thanks
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I keep thinking about that thing where Trump would change how much he thought his business was worth based on "his feelings at the time" and I assume he thinks numbers aren't connected to anything and you can just say any number you want. I mean when he wants a number to be large each time he says it, it grows exponentially*.
*I have the sudden urge to do a regression on "trump numbers" and find out exactly how they tend to grow and warp over time...
This comment of his says everything you need to know about his relationship with how numbers actually work.
“We're going to get the drug prices down ... 1000%, 600%, 500%, 1500%, numbers that are not even thought to be achievable"
How this man ever ran a business is beyond me.
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This comment of his says everything you need to know about his relationship with how numbers actually work.
“We're going to get the drug prices down ... 1000%, 600%, 500%, 1500%, numbers that are not even thought to be achievable"
How this man ever ran a business is beyond me.
But I was so excited to get a check when I picked up my pills. Are you telling me that's not gonna happen?
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Our president just fired head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because the most recent jobs numbers didn't match his feelings about how good the economy is. He did not explain WHY he thought the report was incorrect. Naturally many people now say we won't be able to trust future reports.
To me, faking such numbers seems difficult.
Dr. Reich, @rbreich as a former Secretary of Labor and guy who knows about The Economy can you tells us what might be tell-tale signs of a "Fake Jobs Report" ?
@futurebird Just ask the worst chatbot you can find to write a positive jobs numbers report with some convincing looking references and quotes and paste it on social
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@futurebird Just ask the worst chatbot you can find to write a positive jobs numbers report with some convincing looking references and quotes and paste it on social
Or even the best chatbot, as there isn't much difference.
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I think some people are also alarmed by the "revisions" to numbers in previous months. I remember this always happening in previous reports but these revisions have been very large.
What are some reasons you might need to make a big revision?
When the economy is holding steady, the jobs numbers only need small revisions.
When the economy is going up or down, the model lags, so the revisions when actual data comes in are bigger.
Larger revisions are a sign that the economy is going up or down faster. -
@futurebird @Nazani @rbreich PhDs have been earned finding ways to get around countries that conceal their numbers. They'll just have to apply the methods to the US.
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F myrmepropagandist shared this topic
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@futurebird @Nazani @rbreich PhDs have been earned finding ways to get around countries that conceal their numbers. They'll just have to apply the methods to the US.
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When the economy is holding steady, the jobs numbers only need small revisions.
When the economy is going up or down, the model lags, so the revisions when actual data comes in are bigger.
Larger revisions are a sign that the economy is going up or down faster.What is the source of the Job Report numbers? Is it the state job reports or is it some sort of cross country Federal assessment? Be interesting to find out. Based on TACO Turd's nose dive into the National Reporting I would think it would be a system he can disguise the real numbers so as to meet his political wishes.
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What is the source of the Job Report numbers? Is it the state job reports or is it some sort of cross country Federal assessment? Be interesting to find out. Based on TACO Turd's nose dive into the National Reporting I would think it would be a system he can disguise the real numbers so as to meet his political wishes.
@BagOfNails @Kathmandu @futurebird The jobs reports come from data collected in surveys sent to employers all over the country. One of the reasons revisions are regularly needed is that many companies return the surveys late, so as more data comes in for prior months they make updates. Some info on the methods they use is here:
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@BagOfNails @Kathmandu @futurebird The jobs reports come from data collected in surveys sent to employers all over the country. One of the reasons revisions are regularly needed is that many companies return the surveys late, so as more data comes in for prior months they make updates. Some info on the methods they use is here:
@btrinen @BagOfNails @Kathmandu
Thank you for helping me decide what to read first. This will save so much time. I was overwhelmed and didn't know where to start understanding this.
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@BagOfNails @Kathmandu @futurebird The jobs reports come from data collected in surveys sent to employers all over the country. One of the reasons revisions are regularly needed is that many companies return the surveys late, so as more data comes in for prior months they make updates. Some info on the methods they use is here:
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@BagOfNails @Kathmandu @futurebird The jobs reports come from data collected in surveys sent to employers all over the country. One of the reasons revisions are regularly needed is that many companies return the surveys late, so as more data comes in for prior months they make updates. Some info on the methods they use is here:
@btrinen @BagOfNails @Kathmandu
"job openings" seems like one of the softer parts of this data.
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@BagOfNails @Kathmandu @futurebird The jobs reports come from data collected in surveys sent to employers all over the country. One of the reasons revisions are regularly needed is that many companies return the surveys late, so as more data comes in for prior months they make updates. Some info on the methods they use is here:
@btrinen @BagOfNails @Kathmandu @futurebird There are two surveys, known as the "household survey" and the "establishment survey". The household survey asks people if they have a job (and if so, how many hours they are working, or if not whether they are looking for one); the establishment survey asks employers how many employees they have. These methods often disagree — and also disagree with official state-based unemployment figures.
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@btrinen @BagOfNails @Kathmandu @futurebird There are two surveys, known as the "household survey" and the "establishment survey". The household survey asks people if they have a job (and if so, how many hours they are working, or if not whether they are looking for one); the establishment survey asks employers how many employees they have. These methods often disagree — and also disagree with official state-based unemployment figures.
@btrinen @BagOfNails @Kathmandu @futurebird Oh, and they're always limited to "non-farm payrolls" because it's really hard to get reliable data from farms.
